Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 17.670738 21.385562 25.509220 30.401066 36.019644 42.244504 49.635141
2025-04-06 12.822817 17.801039 23.923195 31.891610 41.865022 53.806718 69.045075
2025-04-13 8.745683 13.690693 20.326753 29.643572 42.118298 57.959768 79.273587
2025-04-20 6.956286 12.029830 19.337218 30.222688 45.562593 65.906768 94.344200
2025-04-27 5.740147 10.867001 18.730998 31.061600 49.204213 74.143858 110.102190
2025-05-04 4.869633 10.024553 18.396912 32.133979 53.116024 82.852766 126.856710
2025-05-11 4.100574 9.168531 17.868351 32.768738 56.330973 90.668315 142.685023
2025-05-18 3.343351 8.153369 16.895559 32.530161 58.116038 96.428482 155.790833
2025-05-25 2.627793 7.038702 15.555277 31.483021 58.471827 99.996973 165.787309
2025-06-01 2.143052 6.273908 14.710183 31.140732 59.857899 105.107991 178.201237
2025-06-08 1.656564 5.366617 13.432794 29.852141 59.517536 107.452844 186.465531
2025-06-15 1.470719 5.130889 13.453663 30.929059 63.234640 116.341111 205.084327
2025-06-22 1.158891 4.509390 12.637358 30.468478 64.500283 121.783212 219.310144
2025-06-29 1.024344 4.342571 12.802167 31.982209 69.462621 133.650711 244.423877
2025-07-06 0.710025 3.496154 11.224583 29.730226 67.309917 133.483125 250.172868
2025-07-13 0.592694 3.239633 11.013483 30.310777 70.486572 142.501304 271.240439
2025-07-20 0.504823 3.049145 10.930751 31.151653 74.208301 152.625351 294.523221
2025-07-27 0.437923 2.909231 10.954209 32.226521 78.452231 163.850138 320.060597
2025-08-03 0.368325 2.720123 10.799834 32.862745 81.844761 173.693541 343.602723
2025-08-10 0.289807 2.437748 10.307718 32.623618 83.409693 180.281228 361.788534
2025-08-17 0.212035 2.093239 9.533367 31.574055 83.173879 183.516622 374.247082
2025-08-24 0.162830 1.864059 9.066382 31.230970 84.395429 189.488819 391.680588
2025-08-31 0.113013 1.569756 8.285798 29.939367 83.417857 191.216343 401.602155